Past Presentations and Events

Big Data: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly
Neil Ericsson (GW)
March 9, 2017

How did forecasters respond to the American growth slowdown since the mid-2000s
Gabriel Mathy (American University)
March 2, 2017

Assessing the accuracy of electricity demand forecasts in developing countries
Jevgenijs Steinbuks (World Bank)
February 23, 2017

Filtering for Multi-step Prediction with DSGE Models
Edward Herbst (Federal Reserve)
December 8, 2016 

17th IWH-CIREQ-GW Macro­econometric Workshop in Halle (Saale), Germany and co-sponsored by the GW Research Program on Forecasting.
December 5-6, 2016:

What Do We Lose When We Average Expectations?
Constantin Bürgi (GWU)
Thursday, December 1, 2016, 

"Estimating monetary policy rules in small very open economies"
Michael Browne (GWU), Presentation slides, and
"An evaluation of the directional accuracy of the World Economic Survey U.S. macroeconomic forecasts"
Olga Bespalova (GWU)
Thursday, November 3, 2016

The World Economic Outlook: Key Issues and Prospects
Luis Catao (IMF)
Presentation Slides
Thursday, October 27, 2016

Forecasting the 2016 Election
 John Sides (GW Political Science)  
 Link to related paper
Thursday, October 20, 2016

A DC Coincident Index in the Age of Big Data
Fitzroy Lee (Office of Revenue and Analysis, DC)
Presentation Slides
October 13, 2016

Missing the Mark: House Price Index Accuracy and Mortgage Credit Modeling
William Larson (FHFA)
Presentation Slides
September 29, 2016

CBO's Economic Projections
Wendy Edelberg (CBO)
Presentation Slides
September 22, 2016

"Information Rigidity, Tenure Eects, and Persistence in the Survey of Professional Forecasters"
Jane Ryngaert (University of Texas at Austin)
Presentation Slides
September 1, 2016

"Measuring Global and Country-specific Uncertainty"
Ezgi Ozturk (IMF) and Xuguang Simon Sheng (American University)
CLICK HERE to view the recorded WEBINAR from Simon's presentation
Presentation Slides
April 28, 2016

"As Good as the Rest? Comparing IMF Forecasts with those of Others"
Zidong An (American University) and Prakash Loungani (IMF)
Presentation Slides
March 31, 2016

17th OxMetrics User Conference.  Hosted at GW.
Local organizers: Neil R. Ericsson, Frederick L. Joutz, Kyle Renner
Location: The Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University
1957 E Street NW, Washington, DC 20052 U.S.A
Please see the Program Guide for the information on the conference program.
March 17 - 18, 2016

"How Data Science Can Help Avoid the Next Recession"
Panelist at the SXSW interactive in Austin, Texas
Tara Sinclair (GWU and RPF Co-Director) 
March 12, 2016

"Old and New Challenges for Forecasting: Recessions, Booms, and Big Data"
Presented at the 16th IWH-CIREQ Macroeconometric Workshop in Halle (Saale), Germany
Tara Sinclair (GWU and RPF Co-Director) 
December 8, 2015

"Estimating the natural rate of unemployment: Evaluating estimates from forecasting inflation."
Julie Smith (LaFayette College)
December 3, 2015

“Robustness of Forecast Combination in Unstable Environment”
Yongchen (Herbert) Zhao (Towson University)
November 12, 2015 

"Melting down: Systemic Financial Instability and the Macroeconomy
Kirstin Hubrich (Federal Reserve Board)
October 22, 2015

“Forecasting retail sales for the holiday season: A practical application of forecasting methods”
Danny Bachman, Senior Manager (Economics) at Deloitte
October 15, 2015 

“Eliciting GDP Forecasts from the FOMC's Minutes Around the Financial Crisis.”
Neil R. Ericsson (Federal Reserve Board and GW)
October 1, 2015 

FFC/2015: The 21st Federal Forecasters Conference Theme: Are Forecasts Accurate? Does it Matter?
September 24, 2015
Check out the coverage on Twitter at #FFC_2015
Also check out panelist (and PRF member) Prakash Lougani's blog on his presentation and his discussion of the Stekler award for courage in forecasting.

"Combining Nowcasts for Canadian GDP Growth"
Rodrigo Sekkel (Bank of Canada)
September 17, 2015

"Evaluating Qualitative Forecasts: The FOMC Minutes, 2006-2010"
Herman Stekler (GW)
September 3, 2015

Forecasting Current Quarter Real GDP Growth
Ed Gamber (Congressional Budget Office) 
April 23, 2015

How Well Do Central Bankers Understand Fiscal Policy?
Simon van Norden (HEC Montréal)
CLICK HERE to view the recorded WEBINAR from Simon's presentation
April 16, 2015

Mismatch Unemployment and the Geography of Job Search joint with microeconomics seminar
Ioana Marinescu (University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy)
April 8, 2015

"Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Economies" joint with macro-international seminar
Alessandro Rebucci (John Hopkins University)
April 8, 2015

"Earnings Forecasting in a Global Stock Selection Model and Efficient Portfolio Construction And Management."
John Guerard (McKinley Capital)
March 26, 2015

“Mapping America’s Futures: A New Platform for Exploring Local Demographic Scenarios.”
Steven Martin and Rolf Pendall (Urban Institute)
February, February 19, 2015

"Stumbling into the Great Recession: How and Why GDP Estimates Kept Economists and Policymakers in the Dark."
Andrew Reamer (GW Institute of Public Policy)
February 12, 2015

"IMF WEO Update"
Thomas Helbling (International Monetary Fund)
January 29, 2015

"The U.S. Census Bureau's 2014 National Projections: Methods and Results."
David Armstrong and Sandra Colby (Census)
January 22, 2015

"Integrating Spatial Information into Econometrics - An Example from Ethiopian Agriculture"
Michael Mann (GWU Geography)
CLICK HERE to view the recorded WEBINAR from Michael's presentation
December 11, 2014

"Conservatism in Inflation Forecasts"
Monica Jain (Bank of Canada)
November 6, 2014

"IMF WEO Update"
Marco E. Terrones (International Monetary Fund)
October 30, 2014

"Policy Forecasting Shocks and the Taylor Rule" 
Pao-Lin Tien (Wesleyan University)
October 23, 2014 

"Evaluating the Efficiency of the FOMC's New Economic Projections"
Natsuki Arai (Johns Hopkins University and National Chengchi University)
October 2, 2014

"Nonlinearities and the countercyclical effects of monetary policy"
Michael Owyang (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
September 18, 2014

"Information Rigidity in Macroeconomic Forecasts: An International Empirical Investigation"
Simon Sheng (American University)
CLICK HERE to view the recorded WEBINAR from Simon's presentation
September 11, 2014

"Forecasting and Monetary Policy Analysis"  
Neil Ericsson (Federal Reserve Board and The George Washington University) joint with SAGE Seminar
August 25, 2014

Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting? An Empirical Evaluation of the Verleger Hypothesis
Christiane Baumeister (Bank of Canada) 
May 15, 2014

"Trends and Cycles in China’s Macroeconomy"
Tao Zha (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta) joint with macro-international seminar
Presentation Slides
May 8, 2014

FFC/2014: 20th Federal Forecasters Conference
April 24, 2014

A number of our members participated in the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics 22nd Annual Symposium, Baruch College, The City University of New York (CUNY) in New York City.
April 17-18, 2014

"Do central banks' forecasts take into account public opinion and views?"
Ricardo Nunes (Federal Reserve Board)
April 10, 2014

"Bond Market and Macroeconomic News"
Michele Modugno (Federal Reserve Board)
March 27, 2014

14th OxMetrics User Conference.  Hosted at GW.
Local organizers: Neil R. Ericsson, Frederick L. Joutz, Kyle Renner
Location: Marvin Center and MPA Building, The George Washington University
800 and 805 21st Street NW, Washington, DC 20052 U.S.A.
Please see the Program Guide for the information on the conference program.
March 20 - 21, 2014

"Stressing Bank Profitability for Interest Rate Risk"
Luca Guerrieri (Federal Reserve Board)
March 6, 2014

"Foreign Reserve Accumulation and the Mercantilist Motive Hypothesis"
Renee MicKibbin (Australia National University, visiting at GW)
Presentation Slides
February 27, 2014

"Global Macroeconomic Uncertainty."
Tino Berger (University of Cologne, visiting at U Penn)
Presentation Slides
February 20, 2014

"Alternative Tests for Correct Specification of Conditional Predictive Densities."
Tatevik Sekhposyan (Bank of Canada)
Presentation Slides
February 13, 2014

"Consumers: still an engine for U.S. job growth? Consumer spending and jobs from the Great Recession through 2022."
Stephanie Hugie Barello (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Presentation Slides
February 6, 2014

IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update: There Will be Growth in the Spring?  The IMF’s Latest Outlook and Forecast Evaluation.
Presentations on the IMF’s latest forecasts by Thomas Helbling (head of the division that produces the IMF’s World Economic Outlook); on a new model being used to guide IMF forecasts (related to IMF Working Paper "Structural Models in Real Time") by Doug Laxton; and on a recent evaluation of IMF forecasts by Prakash Loungani (based on joint work with Hites Ahir).
January 30, 2014

"Robust Forecasting by Regularization"
Dobrislav Dobrev (Federal Reserve Board)
December 5, 2013

IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update
Rupa DuttaGupta (IMF) with a focus on forecasting oil prices by Samya Beidas-Strom (IMF).   Discussion provided by Research Program on Forecasting member Daniel Bachman.
Here is a related link to a report  on the  IMF's Commodity Market Review by Prakash Loungani (IMF and RPF) and also a link to the IMF commodity webpage for relevant data and forecasts.
October 31, 2013

"Understanding the Health Care Spending Slowdown"
Richard Kane (OMB and GW alum).
October 17, 2013

"Forecasting the Real Price of Oil"
Lutz Kilian (University of Michigan)
September 24, 2013
See the video here

“Biases in U.S. Government Forecasts”
Neil Ericsson (FRB, GW, and RPF)
September 19, 2013

"Is there Information in Fed Forecast Revisions?"
H.O. Stekler (GW and RPF)
September 12, 2013

"German Macroeconomic Forecasting –Institutions, Performance, Perspectives" by Ullrich Heilemann (University Leipzig)
Presentation Slides
August 29, 2013

"Using Forecasting to Detect Corruption in International Football."
James Reade (University of Birmingham (UK))
CLICK HERE to view the recorded WEBINAR from James' presentation,
May 17, 2013

Special Mentoring Workshop with Marcelle Chauvet (University of California, Riverside)
Presentation Slides.
Sponsored by CSWEP's Joan Haworth Mentoring Fund and GW's Innovations in Diversity and Inclusion Grants Program of the Office of the Vice Provost for Diversity and Inclusion. 
April 25, 2013

"Real-Time Nowcasting of Nominal GDP"
Marcelle Chauvet (University of California, Riverside)
April 24, 2013, joint with the GW Macro-International Seminar

"The Impact of Monetary Policy Surprises on Energy Prices."
Arabinda Basistha (West Virginia University)
See the Presentation Slides Here.
CLICK HERE to view the recorded WEBINAR from Arabinda's presentation,
April 18, 2013

"State Space Models for Market-Share Time Series."
Keith Ord (Georgetown University and the Research Program on Forecasting)
CLICK HERE to view the recorded WEBINAR from Keith's presentation
April 11, 2013

"Evaluating Oil Price Forecasts."
Fred Joutz (George Washington University and the Research Program on Forecasting)
See the Presentation Slides Here.
CLICK HERE to view the recorded WEBINAR from Fred's presentation
March 7, 2013

"Characteristics and Implications of Chinese Macroeconomic Data Revisions."
Tara Sinclair (George Washington University and the Research Program on Forecasting)
and
"An evaluation of Chinese economic forecasts."
Herman Stekler (George Washington University and the Research Program on Forecasting)
CLICK HERE to view the recorded WEBINAR from Tara's and Herman's presentation
(The Presentation starts at the 7:05 minute mark.)
February 28, 2013

"The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and Policy Implications."
Olivier Coibion (IMF and UT Austin)
February 21, 2013

"Differential Interpretation of Public Information: Estimation and Inference."
Xuguang (Simon) Sheng (American University and the Research Program on Forecasting)
CLICK HERE to view the recorded WEBINAR from Simon's presentation
(You may need to click the pause and play buttons each once to get the recording to start correctly at the beginning of the presentation)
February 14, 2013

U.S. Population Projections: 2012 to 2060
Jennifer Ortman (U.S. Census Bureau)
CLICK HERE to view the recorded WEBINAR from Jennifer's presentation
(You may need to click the pause and play buttons each once to get the recording to start correctly at the beginning of the presentation)
February 7, 2013

IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update
A discussion by IMF staff and GW faculty
January 31, 2013

"Exchange Rates as Exchange Rate Common Factors."
Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy (Bureau of Economic Analysis)
December 13, 2012

GW-IMF Forecasting Forum in Honor of Herman Stekler
November 15-16, 2012

The 19th Federal Forecasters Conference (FFC/2012)
Conference Theme: Issues in Forecasting and the Environment
September 27, 2012

"Real-Time Forecasts for the World Economy – a Practitioner’s Perspective" (Presentation Slides)
Robin Koepke and Emre Tiftik (Institute of International Finance)
April 26, 2012 

"Forecasting the Price of Oil" (Presentation Slides)
Ron Alquist (Bank of Canada)
April 19, 2012 

"Forecasting Inflation in Azerbaijan"
Fakhri Hasanov (Fulbright Scholar at GWU)
April 12, 2012

11th OxMetrics User Conference
Location: The Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University
               1957 E Street NW, Room 212, Washington, DC 20052 U.S.A.
Please click here for the program.
March 15-16, 2012

"When are Direct Multi-Step and Iterative Forecasts Identical?"
Tucker McElroy (Census Bureau)
December 8, 2011

"An Experiment in Epidemiological Forecasting:  A comparison of forecast accuracies among difference methods of forecasting Deer Mouse Population Density in Montana"
Robert Yaffee (New York University)
December 1, 2011

“Information Rigidity and Herding in Growth Forecasts: Evidence from a Large International Panel”
Prakash Loungani (International Monetary Fund)
November 17, 2011

"The Puzzle of Immigration and Population Projections"
Karen Woodrow-Lafield (Maryland Population Research Center)
November 3, 2011

“Did Sea Levels Rise in the 20th Century?”
Yaniv Reingewertz (Hebrew University and GWU)
October 27, 2011

"On the Network Topology of Variance Decompositions: Measuring the Connectedness of Financial Firms"
Francis X. Diebold (University of Pennsylvania)
October 6, 2011

Short Course on New Approaches in Economic Forecasting (slides)
Seminar Presentation on "Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both, or neither?" (slides)
David Hendry (University of Oxford)
September 8, 2011

“Cross-country Evidence on the Quality of Fiscal Forecasts”
João Tovar Jalles (University of Cambridge) Iskander Karibzhanov (University of Minnesota) and Prakash Loungani (International Monetary Fund)
May 5, 2011

The 18th Federal Forecasters Conference (FFC/2011)
Conference Theme: Issues in Forecasting and the Environment
April 21, 2011

“Comparing Government Forecasts of the United States’ Gross Federal Debt”
Andrew B. Martinez (George Washington University)
and
“Modelling and Forecasting Residential Energy Consumption in the U.S. Mountain Region”
Jason Jorgensen (U.S. Department of HUD and GWU) and Fred Joutz (George Washington University)
April 14, 2011

“Estimation and Inference with Weak, Semi-strong, and Strong Identification”
Xu Cheng (University of Pennsylvania)
April 7, 2011

“Forecasting the Intermittent Demand for Slow-Moving Items”
Keith Ord (Georgetown University)
March 31, 2011

19th Symposium of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics
Slides from talk by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard
Slides from talk by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams
March 17th – 18th, 2011

“Evaluating Alternative Methods of Forecasting House Prices – A Post-Crisis Reassessment”
William D. Larson (George Washington University)
February 24th, 2011

“Are Macroeconomic Variables Useful for Forecasting the Distribution of U.S. Inflation?”
Sebastiano Manzan (Baruch College, CUNY)
February 17th, 2011

“The Information Content of the ISM Purchasing Managers’ Survey”
Daniel Bachman (IHS Global Insight)
January 27th, 2011 

“Examination of Forecast Errors in USDA Cotton Forecasts”
Olga Isengildina-Massa (Clemson University)
December 15, 2010

“Posterior Predictive Analysis for Evaluating DSGE Models”
Jon Faust (Johns Hopkins University)
Thursday, December 2, 2010

"Forecasting Disparaged Data:  A Practitioner's Response”
Rob Vigfusson (Federal Reserve Board)
based on: "Policy-Relevant Exchange Rate Pass-Through to U.S. Import Prices" which is joint work with Etienne Gagnon and Ben Mandel.
Thursday, November 18, 2010

Special seminar in honor of Prof. Herman Stekler
Thursday, November 4, 2010

“Measuring Aggregate Uncertainty in a Panel of Forecasts and a New Test for Forecast Heterogeneity”
Xuguang Sheng (American University)
Thursday October 28, 2010

“Predicting US Recessions: A New Forecast Combination Based Approach”
Chikako Baba and Turgut Kisinbay (IMF)
Thursday, October 21, 2010

“Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts” (Special Day joint with Macro-International Seminar)

Olivier Coibion (The College of William and Mary)
Wednesday, October 20, 2010

“How Useful are Estimated DSGE Model Forecasts for Central Bankers?”
Rochelle Edge (Federal Reserve Board)
Thursday, October 14, 2010   

“Using Labor Force Flows to Forecast the Labor Market”
Chris Nekarda and Regis Barnichon (Federal Reserve Board)
Thursday, September 30, 2010

“Disagreement Among Forecasters in G7 Countries”
Ulrich Fritsche (University of Hamburg)
Monday, September 27, 2010

“When Is Sticky Information More Information? Tracking Economic Activity Using Diffusion Indices”
Pierre-Daniel Sarte, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Thursday September 9, 2010

"The IMF's WEO Forecasting Process"
Daniel Leigh, International Monetary Fund
Thursday, September 2, 2010

“Empirical Model Selection: Friedman and Schwartz Revisited”
Neil Ericsson, Federal Reserve Board and The George Washington University
Thursday, May 20, 2010

“Do Ifo WES Surveys Provide Useful Forecasts”
Mark Hutson, The George Washington University
Thursday, May 13, 2010

“Thailand's Energy Security: Strategic Petroleum Reserve”
Poonpat Leesombatpiboon, The George Washington University
Thursday, May 13, 2010

“The Role of Inventories and Speculative Trading in the Global Market for Crude Oil”
Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan
Wednesday, April 21, 2010

“What the Market Watched: Bloomberg News Stories and Bank Returns as the Financial Crisis Unfolded”
Robin Lumsdaine, American University
Thursday, April 22, 2010

“Continuous-Time Signal Extraction: Filter Design for Economic Time Series”
Thomas Trimbur, Federal Reserve Board
Thursday, April 29, 2010

“Why Be Safe? Public and Private Enforcement in the Air Transportation Industry”
Nicole Funari, Michigan State University
Thursday, April 15, 2010

8th OxMetrics User Conference
Local organizers: Neil R. Ericsson and Frederick L. Joutz
March 18–19, 2010

"Perspectives on Macroeconomic Forecast Evaluation"
Herman Stekler, The George Washington University
Thursday, March 4, 2010

"Forecast Error and Uncertainty: Energy Price Forecasts and Confidence Intervals"
Tancred Lidderdale, Energy Information Administration
Please use the following link to see the presentation:
Forecast Error and Uncertainty: Energy Price Forecasts and Confidence Intervals
Thursday, February 18, 2010

"Do Higher Wind Power Penetration Levels Pose a Challenge to Electric Power Security? : Evidence from the Forecasting Wind Generation in the ERCOT Power Grid in Texas"
Kevin Forbes, The Catholic University of America
Thursday, January 21, 2010

"Forecasting Turning Points: Consensus and Disagreement"
Prakash Loungani, International Monetary Fund, work with Natalia Tamirisa and Herman Stekler
Please use the following link to see the paper: How Well Are Recessions and Recoveries Forecast?
November 17, 2009

"Unplanned Inventories and the Decline in GDP Volatility" 
James Morley, Washington University in St. Louis 
November 3, 2009

"Real-time VAR Forecasting with a Judgmental Democratic Prior"
Jonathan Wright, Johns Hopkins University
October 29, 2009

"How Strong a Recovery for the World in 2010"
John Walker, Chairman, Oxford Economics
October 27, 2009 

“Forecast evaluation of small nested model sets”
Kirstin Hubrich, European Central Bank and the Federal Reservework completed jointly with Ken West
October, 13, 2009

17th Federal Forecasters Conference
September 24, 2009

"Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation" 
Chris Crowe, International Monetary Fund
September 22, 2009

SGE Annual Conference
September 21, 2009

“Introducing the Euro-STING: Short-Term Indicator of Euro Area Growth”
Gabriel Perez-Quiros, Bank of Spain
Joint with the George Washington University Macro-International Seminar.
September 16, 2009

“Forecasting and Empirical Model Selection”
Neil Ericsson, Federal Reserve Board
September 8, 2009 
Relevant Papers:
        Comment on “Economic Forecasting in a Changing World”
        Constructive Data Mining: Modeling Australian Inflation

“Measuring U.S. International Relative Prices: A WARP View of the World”
Jaime Marquez, Division of International Finance, Federal Reserve Board
May 12, 2009  

“Measuring Forecast Uncertainty by Disagreement: The Missing Link”
Kajal Lahiri
April 14, 2009

“Rethinking our Approach to Time Series Analysis”
Ralph Snyder, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, Monash University, Australia 
Handout
March 13, 2009

“Coupled Economies, Decoupled Forecasters?”
Prakash Loungani, International Monetary Fund 
February 21, 2009

“Integrating Judgmental and Quantitative Forecasts”
Stephen MacDonald, Senior Economist, Economic Research Service, USDA
January 17, 2009

“Has the Fed’s Forecasting Advantage Eroded?”
Julie Smith, Lafayette College 
Co-authored with Ed Gamber
November 8, 2007

"Jointly Evaluating the Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Forecasts of Real GDP Growth and Inflation"
Tara Sinclair, Department of Economics, George Washington University
The corresponding paper was co-authored with Herman Stekler and Elizabeth Reid.
October 18, 2007

“A Framework for Decomposing Shocks and Measuring Volatilities Derived from Multi-Dimensional Panel Data of Survey Forecasts”
Antony Davies
August 7, 2007

“Cellulosic Ethanol: Effects on the Future U.S. Economy of Successful Commercialization” 
Stefan Osborne
June 19, 2007

“A Survey of Results from Sports Forecasts”
Herman Stekler, Department of Economics, George Washington University
April 17, 2007

“Forecasting Interments and Gravesites in National Cemeteries, the New Model”
Kathleen Sorensen
March 20, 2007

“Evaluating BLS Labor Force, Employment and Occupation Projections for 2000”
Herman Stekler, Department of Economics, George Washington University
February 20, 2007

“Directional Forecasts of GDP and Inflation: A Joint Evaluation with an Application to Federal Reserve Predictions”
Tara M. Sinclair, Department of Economics, George Washington University
(work completed jointly with H. O. Stekler and Linsay Kitzinger)
Please use the following link to see the presentation slides.
January 9, 2007

Conference in Germany!  December 5-6, 2016: 17th IWH-CIREQ-GW Macro­econometric Workshop to be held in Halle (Saale), Germany and co-sponsored by the GW Research Program on Forecasting.