Past Forecasting Presentations and Events
The H.O. Stekler Research Program in Forecasting keeps an archive of all past presentations given at economics conferences, workshops, online events and more.
If you would like to request an accessible version of any of the documents listed, please submit a feedback form.
FFC/2022: The 24th Federal Forecasters Conference September 22, 2022.
"Measuring Global Interest Rate Comovements with Implications for Monetary Policy Interdependence” Renée Fry-McKibbin (Australia National University) May 12, 2022.
"Forecasting with Partial Least Squares When a Large Number of Predictors Are Available" Juhee Bae (University of Glasgow) May 5, 2022.
"Model discovery and forecasting in real time environments" Michael Browne (GW Economics Department) Recording April 21, 2022.
“Simple versus complex forecasting models: thinking through their pros and cons." Anne Morse (Census) Recording April 14, 2022.
"Should Macroeconomists Use Seasonally Adjusted Time Series? Structural Identification and Bayesian Estimation in Seasonal Vector Autoregressions." Ross Doppelt (Penn State) March 3, 2022.
"Overreaction Through Expectation Smoothing." Julio Ortiz (Federal Reserve) and Constantin Bürgi (UC Dublin). Recording February 10, 2022.
“The Efficiency of the Government’s Revenue Projections and a Political Cycle." Natsuki Arai (National Chengchi University, Taiwan). Recording February 3, 2022.
"Optimal forecast under structural breaks." Shahnaz Parsaeian (University of Kansas). January 20, 2022.
Summary of Fall 2021 Seminars by Jean Lih, Stekler Fellow (PDF).
“Evaluating the Federal Reserve’s Tealbook Forecasts." Neil R. Ericsson (Federal Reserve Board). December 2, 2021.
Understanding Growth-at-Risk: A Markov-Switching Approach (PDF). Francesca Loria (Federal Reserve Board). November 18, 2021.
Herman Stekler's 89th Birthday Celebration. Presentations by his co-authors Yongchen (Herbert) Zhao and Gabriel Mathy, including their new joint paper "Could Diffusion Indexes Have Forecasted the Great Depression? (PDF)" View the birthday celebration Zoom recording. November 4, 2021.
22nd IWH-CIREQ-GW Macroeconometric Workshop: Environmental Macroeconomics. November 1-2, 2021.
Raiders of the Lost High-Frequency Forecasts: New Data and Evidence on the Efficiency of the Fed's Forecasting (PDF). Andrew Chang (Federal Reserve Board). Listen to the Raiders of the Lost High-Frequency Forecasts recording. October 28, 2021.
Smooth Robust Multi-Horizon Forecasts (PDF). Andrew Martinez (Treasury). October 21, 2021.
Forecasting Future Recessions: Shift to Real-Time Tracking and Automatic Stabilizers (PDF). Claudia Sahm. Listen to the Forecasting Future Recessions recording. October 7, 2021.
Herd Immunity? A First Shot at Analyzing Forecast Performance During the COVID-19 Pandemic (PDF). Prakash Loungani (IMF/IEO). Listen to the Herd Immunity recording. September 23, 2021.
24th Dynamic Econometrics Conference. September 16-18, 2021.
The 23rd Federal Forecasters Conference, FFC/2021 (PDF). More information on the Federal Forecasters Consortium page. May 6, 2021.
Unit Cost Expectations and Uncertainty: Firms' Perspectives on Inflation (PDF). Xuguang (Simon) Sheng (American U) and Brent Meyer (Atlanta Fed). April 15, 2021.
The Macroeconomics of Data. Special webinar co-hosted by the Digital Trade & Data Governance Hub. Video of the event. April 12, 2021.
Sentiment and Uncertainty about Regulation (PDF).Zhoudan (Zoey) Xie (GW). April 1, 2021.
23rd Dynamic Econometrics Conference. March 18-19, 2021.
"FOMC Forecasts: Ten Years After Romer (PDF)Jaime Marquez (SAIS). March 4, 2021.
Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions (PDF).” Domenico Giannone (University of Washington). February 18, 2021.
"A Fundamental Connection: Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Expectations (PDF)." Jenny Tang (Boston Fed). February 11, 2021.
"Learning-through-Survey in Inflation Expectations." Carola Binder (Haverford College). January 28, 2021
"Making text count: economic forecasting using newspaper text." Arthur Turrell (Bank of England). January 21, 2021
"Forecast evaluation and selection in unstable environments (PDF)." Ekaterina (Katja) Smetanina (Chicago Booth). December 3, 2020.
The FOMC's New Individual Economic Projections and Macroeconomic Theories (PDF)." Natsuki Arai (National Chengchi University and H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting visiting scholar). November 16, 2020.
Special launch event for our new name: the H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting! Panelists included Neil Ericsson, Fred Joutz, Prakash Loungani, and Tara Sinclair. View the launch event video recording. November 5, 2020.
Nowcasting Unemployment Insurance Claims in the Time of COVID-19 (PDF). William Larson (FHFA). Video of 15-minute presentation of this paper by co-author Tara Sinclair. October 22, 2020.
21st IWH-CIREQ-GW Macroeconometric Workshop: Forecasting and Uncertainty.” October 16-17, 2020.
Expectation Formation and the Persistence of Shocks. Constantin Bürgi (St. Mary's College of Maryland). September 17, 2020.
“Time Varying Volatility and Optimal Approximate Predictions: Making Sense of Professional Forecasts." Julio Ortiz (Boston University). March 12, 2020.
Testing for Differences in Path Forecast Accuracy. Andrew Martinez. March 5, 2020.
Mardi Dungey Memorial Research Conference. View the memorial recording on Youtube. February 21, 2020.
Estimating a non-parametric memory kernel for mutually-exciting point processes (PDF). Vladimir Volkov (University of Tasmania). February 20, 2020.
"Small is different: a forecasting model for very open economies." DeLisle Worrell, immediate past governor of the Central Bank of Barbados. April 18, 2017. (Joint with IIEP's International Economic Policy Forum.)
"The Emerging Electorate: Projections of the Eligible Voting Population in the United States, 2016-2060 (PDF)." Thom File (Census). April 13, 2017.
“Politics at the Community Level, The Places That Will Matter in 2020” (related article). Dante Chinni, (Data Journalist, Wall Street Journal and Meet the Press). January 30, 2020.
The Dark Side of the Moon: Searching For The Other Half Of Seasonality (PDF). Gary Cornwall (BEA). January 16, 2020.
“Time-varying VAR models with structural dynamic factors." Julia Schaumburg (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam). November 21, 2019.
Advances in Nowcasting Economic Activity (PDF). Thomas Dreschel (University of Maryland). November 14, 2019.
20th IWH-CIREQ-GW Macroeconometric Workshop: “Micro Data and Macro Questions." Halle (Saale), Germany. October 29-30, 2019.
Evaluating Government Budget Forecasts. Neil Ericsson (FRB) (joint with Andrew B. Martinez (U.S. Department of the Treasury). October 10, 2019.
"Distinguishing mid-cycle slowdowns from recessions in real time." Based in part on this paper: Recession Forecasting Using Bayesian Classification (with Aaron Smalter-Hall). Troy Davig (Rokos Capital Management). September 26, 2019.
Measuring Labor-Force Participation and the Incidence and Duration of Unemployment (PDF). Hie Joo Ahn (Federal Reserve). September 19, 2019.
False Sense of Security: The Impact of Forecast Accuracy on Hurricane Damages. Andrew Martinez (Doctoral Student, Research Assistant, Department of Economics, University of Oxford Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Martin School, University of Oxford). April 11, 2019.
Is The Cycle the Trend? Evidence from the Views of International Professional Forecasters. John Bluedorn and Daniel Leigh (IMF). March 21, 2019.
21st Dynamic Econometrics Conference. March 14-15, 2019.
19th IWH-CIREQ-GW Macroeconometric Workshop: Uncertainty, Expectations and Macroeconomic Modelling in Halle (Saale) Germany. December 12-13, 2018.
"Demographic Turning Points for the United States: Population Projections for 2020 to 2060." Lauren Medina (Census). December 6, 2018.
Forecasting with a Panel Tobit Model (PDF). Laura Liu (Federal Reserve). November 29, 2018.
Continuities and Discontinuities in Forecasting: A Tribute to the Research of Herman Stekler. Tara M. Sinclair (Co-Director of the H.O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting). New York Times article referencing this research: What Is a Recession, and Why Are People Talking About the Next One? November 8, 2018.
"The Role of Okun's Law in Forecast Accuracy." Xudong Guo (GW PhD Student - job market paper). October 25, 2018.
A Retrospective Analysis of the Spatial and Temporal Patterns of the West African Ebola Epidemic, 2014-2015 (PDF). Keith Ord, Georgetown and GW Research Program on Forecasting (co-authored with Arthur Getis, San Diego State University). October 18, 2018.
“The Wisdom of Committees." Neil Ericsson (joint work with David F. Hendry, S. Yanki Kalfa, Jaime Marquez). May 3, 2018.
"A Factor Structure of Disagreement."Fabian Winkler (Federal Reserve). March 29, 2018.
"The role of China: Catch-up and interactions between two large open economies" (Joint with International-Macro seminar). Mardi Dungey, University of Tasmania (co-authored with Denise Osborn). March 1, 2018.
Forecasting FOMC Economic Projections (paper updated December 2018). Jaime Marquez (SAIS). February 22, 2018.
18th IWH-CIREQ-GW Macroeconometric Workshop: Mixed Frequency Data in Macroeconomics and Finance, held in Halle (Saale), Germany. December 12-13, 2017
Uncertainty versus rigidities - what is the main driver of deviations from full information rational expectations? (PDF) (Joint with the Macro-International Seminar). Constantin Bürgi (GW). December 6, 2017.
"Business cycle duration dependence: evidence from US states." Travis Berge (Federal Reserve Board). May 4, 2017.
Workshop on "Forecasting Issues in Developing Countries" at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC. Jointly sponsored by the International Institute of Forecasters, International Monetary Fund, American University and GW’s H.O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting. April 26-27, 2017.
22nd Federal Forecasters Conference, FFC/2017. April 20, 2017.
Big Data: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly. Neil Ericsson (GW). March 9, 2017.
How did forecasters respond to the American growth slowdown since the mid-2000s (PDF)? Gabriel Mathy (American University). March 2, 2017.
Assessing the accuracy of electricity demand forecasts in developing countries. Jevgenijs Steinbuks (World Bank). February 23, 2017.
Filtering for Multi-step Prediction with DSGE Models. Edward Herbst (Federal Reserve). December 8, 2016.
17th IWH-CIREQ-GW Macroeconometric Workshop in Halle (Saale), Germany and co-sponsored by the GW Research Program on Forecasting. December 5-6, 2016
What Do We Lose When We Average Expectations? Constantin Bürgi (GW). Thursday, December 1, 2016.
Conference in Germany! December 5-6, 2016: 17th IWH-CIREQ-GW Macroeconometric Workshop to be held in Halle (Saale), Germany and co-sponsored by the GW Research Program on Forecasting.
"Estimating monetary policy rules in small very open economies." Michael Browne (GW).
"An evaluation of the directional accuracy of the World Economic Survey U.S. macroeconomic forecasts." Olga Bespalova (GW). Thursday, November 3, 2016.
The World Economic Outlook: Key Issues and Prospects. Luis Catao (IMF). Thursday, October 27, 2016.
Forecasting the 2016 Election. John Sides (GW Political Science). Link to related paper (PDF). Thursday, October 20, 2016.
A DC Coincident Index in the Age of Big Data. Fitzroy Lee (Office of Revenue and Analysis, DC). Presentation slides (PDF). October 13, 2016.
Missing the Mark: House Price Index Accuracy and Mortgage Credit Modeling. William Larson (FHFA). Presentation Slides (PPT). September 29, 2016.
CBO's Economic Projections. Wendy Edelberg (CBO). September 22, 2016.
"Information Rigidity, Tenure Effects, and Persistence in the Survey of Professional Forecasters." Jane Ryngaert (University of Texas at Austin). September 1, 2016.
"Measuring Global and Country-specific Uncertainty." Ezgi Ozturk (IMF) and Xuguang Simon Sheng (American). View the recorded Measuring Global and Country-Specific Uncertainty webinar from Simon's presentation. Presentation Slides. April 28, 2016.
"As Good as the Rest? Comparing IMF Forecasts with those of Others." Zidong An (American University) and Prakash Loungani (IMF). Presentation Slides (PDF). March 31, 2016.
17th OxMetrics User Conference. Hosted at GW. Local organizers: Neil R. Ericsson, Frederick L. Joutz, Kyle Renner. Location: The Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University. 1957 E Street NW, Washington, DC 20052 U.S.A. March 17 - 18, 2016.
"How Data Science Can Help Avoid the Next Recession." Panelist at the SXSW interactive in Austin, Texas. Tara Sinclair (GW and RPF Co-Director). March 12, 2016.
2015 and Earlier
"Old and New Challenges for Forecasting: Recessions, Booms, and Big Data" (PDF). Presented at the 16th IWH-CIREQ Macroeconometric Workshop in Halle (Saale), Germany. Tara Sinclair (GWU and RPF Co-Director). December 8, 2015.
"Estimating the natural rate of unemployment: Evaluating estimates from forecasting inflation." Julie Smith (Lafayette College). December 3, 2015.
“Robustness of Forecast Combination in Unstable Environment." Yongchen (Herbert) Zhao (Towson University). November 12, 2015.
"Melting down: Systemic Financial Instability and the Macroeconomy.” Kirstin Hubrich (Federal Reserve Board). October 22, 2015
“Forecasting retail sales for the holiday season: A practical application of forecasting methods." Danny Bachman, Senior Manager (Economics) at Deloitte. October 15, 2015.
“Eliciting GDP Forecasts from the FOMC's Minutes Around the Financial Crisis.” Neil R. Ericsson (Federal Reserve Board and GW). October 1, 2015.
FFC/2015: The 21st Federal Forecasters Conference Theme: Are Forecasts Accurate? Does it Matter? September 24, 2015. Check out panelist (and PRF member) Prakash Loungani's blog on his presentation and his discussion of the Stekler award for courage in forecasting.
"Combining Nowcasts for Canadian GDP Growth" (PDF). Rodrigo Sekkel (Bank of Canada). September 17, 2015.
"Evaluating Qualitative Forecasts: The FOMC Minutes, 2006-2010." Herman Stekler (GW). September 3, 2015.
Forecasting Current Quarter Real GDP Growth. Ed Gamber (Congressional Budget Office). April 23, 2015.
How Well Do Central Bankers Understand Fiscal Policy? (PDF). Simon van Norden (HEC Montréal). View the recorded How Well do Central Bankers Understand Fiscal Policy webinar from Simon's presentation. April 16, 2015.
"Mismatch Unemployment and the Geography of Job Search" (PDF) joint with microeconomics seminar. Ioana Marinescu (University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy). April 8, 2015.
"Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Economies" joint with macro-international seminar. Alessandro Rebucci (John Hopkins University). April 8, 2015.
"Earnings Forecasting in a Global Stock Selection Model and Efficient Portfolio Construction And Management." John Guerard (McKinley Capital). March 26, 2015.
“Mapping America’s Futures: A New Platform for Exploring Local Demographic Scenarios.” Steven Martin and Rolf Pendall (Urban Institute). February 19, 2015.
"Stumbling into the Great Recession: How and Why GDP Estimates Kept Economists and Policymakers in the Dark" (PDF). Andrew Reamer (GW Institute of Public Policy). February 12, 2015.
"IMF WEO Update." Thomas Helbling (International Monetary Fund). January 29, 2015.
"The U.S. Census Bureau's 2014 National Projections: Methods and Results." David Armstrong and Sandra Colby (Census). January 22, 2015.
"Integrating Spatial Information into Econometrics - An Example from Ethiopian Agriculture." Michael Mann (GW Geography). View the recorded webinar from Michael's presentation. December 11, 2014.
"Conservatism in Inflation Forecasts" (PDF). Monica Jain (Bank of Canada). November 6, 2014.
"IMF WEO Update." Marco E. Terrones (International Monetary Fund). October 30, 2014.
"Policy Forecasting Shocks and the Taylor Rule." Pao-Lin Tien (GW). October 23, 2014.
"Evaluating the Efficiency of the FOMC's New Economic Projections" (PDF). Natsuki Arai (Johns Hopkins University and National Chengchi University). October 2, 2014.
"Nonlinearities and the countercyclical effects of monetary policy." Michael Owyang (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). September 18, 2014.
"Information Rigidity in Macroeconomic Forecasts: An International Empirical Investigation" (PDF). Simon Sheng (American University). September 11, 2014.
"Forecasting and Monetary Policy Analysis." Neil R. Ericsson (Federal Reserve Board and The George Washington University) joint with SAGE Seminar. August 25, 2014.
“Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting? An Empirical Evaluation of the Verleger Hypothesis” (PDF). Christiane Baumeister (Bank of Canada). May 15, 2014.
"Trends and Cycles in China’s Macroeconomy" (PDF). Tao Zha (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta) joint with macro-international seminar. May 8, 2014.
FFC/2014: 20th Federal Forecasters Conference. April 24, 2014.
A number of our members participated in the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics 22nd Annual Symposium, Baruch College, The City University of New York (CUNY) in New York City. April 17-18, 2014.
"Do central banks' forecasts take into account public opinion and views?" (PDF). Ricardo Nunes (Federal Reserve Board). April 10, 2014.
"Bond Market and Macroeconomic News" (PDF). Michele Modugno (Federal Reserve Board). March 27, 2014.
14th OxMetrics User Conference. Local organizers: Neil R. Ericsson, Frederick L. Joutz, Kyle Renner. Hosted at GW. March 20 - 21, 2014.
"Stressing Bank Profitability for Interest Rate Risk." Luca Guerrieri (Federal Reserve Board). March 6, 2014.
"Foreign Reserve Accumulation and the Mercantilist Motive Hypothesis" (PDF). Renee McKibbin (Australia National University, visiting at GW). Presentation Slides (PDF). February 27, 2014.
"Global Macroeconomic Uncertainty" (PDF). Tino Berger (University of Cologne, visiting at U Penn). Presentation Slides (PDF). February 20, 2014.
"Alternative Tests for Correct Specification of Conditional Predictive Densities" (PDF). Tatevik Sekhposyan (Bank of Canada). Presentation Slides (PDF). February 13, 2014.
"Consumers: still an engine for U.S. job growth? Consumer spending and jobs from the Great Recession through 2022." Stephanie Hugie Barello (Bureau of Labor Statistics). Presentation Slides (PDF). February 6, 2014.
IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update: There Will be Growth in the Spring? The IMF’s Latest Outlook and Forecast Evaluation.
Presentations on the IMF’s latest forecasts (PDF) by Thomas Helbling (head of the division that produces the IMF’s World Economic Outlook); on a new model (PDF) being used to guide IMF forecasts (related to IMF Working Paper "Structural Models in Real Time" [PDF]) by Doug Laxton); and on a recent evaluation of IMF forecasts (PDF) by Prakash Loungani (based on joint work with Hites Ahir). January 30, 2014.
"Robust Forecasting by Regularization" (PDF). Dobrislav Dobrev (Federal Reserve Board). December 5, 2013.
IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update. Rupa DuttaGupta (IMF) with a focus on forecasting oil prices by Samya Beidas-Strom (IMF). Discussion provided by Research Program on Forecasting member Daniel Bachman. Here is a related link to a report on the IMF's Commodity Market Review (PDF) by Prakash Loungani (IMF and RPF) and also a link to the IMF commodity webpage for relevant data and forecasts. October 31, 2013.
"Understanding the Health Care Spending Slowdown." Richard Kane (OMB and GW alum). October 17, 2013.
"Forecasting the Real Price of Oil" (PDF). Lutz Kilian (University of Michigan). September 24, 2013.
“Biases in U.S. Government Forecasts” (PDF). Neil R. Ericsson (FRB, GW, and RPF). September 19, 2013.
"Is there Information in Fed Forecast Revisions?" H.O. Stekler (GW and RPF). September 12, 2013.
"German Macroeconomic Forecasting –Institutions, Performance, Perspectives." Ullrich Heilemann (University Leipzig). Presentation Slides (PDF). August 29, 2013.
"Using Forecasting to Detect Corruption in International Football"(PDF). James Reade (University of Birmingham (UK). May 17, 2013.
Special Mentoring Workshop with Marcelle Chauvet (University of California, Riverside). Sponsored by CSWEP's Joan Haworth Mentoring Fund and GW's Innovations in Diversity and Inclusion Grants Program of the Office of the Vice Provost for Diversity and Inclusion. Presentation Slides. April 25, 2013.
"Real-Time Nowcasting of Nominal GDP" (PDF). Marcelle Chauvet (University of California, Riverside). Joint with the GW Macro-International Seminar. April 24, 2013.
"The Impact of Monetary Policy Surprises on Energy Prices" (PDF). Arabinda Basistha (West Virginia University). Presentation Slides (PDF). April 18, 2013.
"State Space Models for Market-Share Time Series" (PDF). Keith Ord (Georgetown University and the Research Program on Forecasting). April 11, 2013.
"Evaluating Oil Price Forecasts" (PDF). Fred Joutz (George Washington University and the Research Program on Forecasting). March 7, 2013.
"Characteristics and Implications of Chinese Macroeconomic Data Revisions" (PDF). Tara Sinclair (George Washington University and the Research Program on Forecasting) and "An evaluation of Chinese economic forecasts" (PDF). Herman Stekler (George Washington University and the Research Program on Forecasting). February 28, 2013.
"The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and Policy Implications" (PDF). Olivier Coibion (IMF and UT Austin). February 21, 2013.
"Differential Interpretation of Public Information: Estimation and Inference." Xuguang (Simon) Sheng (American University and the Research Program on Forecasting). February 14, 2013.
U.S. Population Projections: 2012 to 2060. Jennifer Ortman (U.S. Census Bureau). February 7, 2013.
IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update. A discussion by IMF staff and GW faculty. January 31, 2013.
"Exchange Rates as Exchange Rate Common Factors." Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy (Bureau of Economic Analysis). December 13, 2012.
GW-IMF Forecasting Forum in Honor of Herman Stekler. November 15-16, 2012.
The 19th Federal Forecasters Conference (FFC/2012). Conference Theme: Issues in Forecasting and the Environment. September 27, 2012.
"Real-Time Forecasts for the World Economy – a Practitioner’s Perspective." Robin Koepke and Emre Tiftik (Institute of International Finance). April 26, 2012.
"Forecasting the Price of Oil." Ron Alquist (Bank of Canada). April 19, 2012.
"Forecasting Inflation in Azerbaijan." Fakhri Hasanov (Fulbright Scholar at GWU). April 12, 2012.
11th OxMetrics User Conference. March 15-16, 2012.
"When are Direct Multi-Step and Iterative Forecasts Identical?" Tucker McElroy (Census Bureau). December 8, 2011.
"An Experiment in Epidemiological Forecasting: A comparison of forecast accuracies among difference methods of forecasting Deer Mouse Population Density in Montana" (PDF). Robert Yaffee (New York University). December 1, 2011.
“Information Rigidity and Herding in Growth Forecasts: Evidence from a Large International Panel.” Prakash Loungani (International Monetary Fund). November 17, 2011.
"The Puzzle of Immigration and Population Projections." Karen Woodrow-Lafield (Maryland Population Research Center). November 3, 2011.
“Did Sea Levels Rise in the 20th Century?” (PDF). Yaniv Reingewertz (Hebrew University and GWU). October 27, 2011.
"On the Network Topology of Variance Decompositions: Measuring the Connectedness of Financial Firms." Francis X. Diebold (University of Pennsylvania). October 6, 2011.
Seminar Presentation on "Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both, or neither?" (PDF). David F. Hendry (University of Oxford). Presentation Slides (PDF). September 8, 2011.
“Cross-country Evidence on the Quality of Fiscal Forecasts” (PDF). João Tovar Jalles (University of Cambridge), Iskander Karibzhanov (University of Minnesota) and Prakash Loungani (International Monetary Fund). May 5, 2011.
The 18th Federal Forecasters Conference (FFC/2011). Conference Theme: Issues in Forecasting and the Environment. April 21, 2011.
“Comparing Government Forecasts of the United States’ Gross Federal Debt” (PDF). Andrew B. Martinez (George Washington University). And “Modelling and Forecasting Residential Energy Consumption in the U.S. Mountain Region” (PDF). Jason Jorgensen (U.S. Department of HUD and GWU) and Fred Joutz (George Washington University). April 14, 2011.
“Estimation and Inference with Weak, Semi-strong, and Strong Identification.” Xu Cheng (University of Pennsylvania). April 7, 2011.
“Forecasting the Intermittent Demand for Slow-Moving Items" (PDF). Keith Ord (Georgetown University). March 31, 2011.
19th Symposium of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics. Slides from talk by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard (PDF). Slides from talk by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams (PDF). March 17th – 18th, 2011.
"Evaluating Alternative Methods of Forecasting House Prices – A Post-Crisis Reassessment" (PDF). William D. Larson (George Washington University). February 24th, 2011.
"Are Macroeconomic Variables Useful for Forecasting the Distribution of U.S. Inflation?" (PDF). Sebastiano Manzan (Baruch College, CUNY). February 17th, 2011.
“The Information Content of the ISM Purchasing Managers’ Survey” (PDF). Daniel Bachman (IHS Global Insight). January 27th, 2011.
“Examination of Forecast Errors in USDA Cotton Forecasts” (PDF). Olga Isengildina-Massa (Clemson University). December 15, 2010.
“Posterior Predictive Analysis for Evaluating DSGE Models” (PDF). Jon Faust (Johns Hopkins University). Thursday, December 2, 2010.
"Forecasting Disparaged Data: A Practitioner's Response.” Rob Vigfusson (Federal Reserve Board). Based on: "Policy-Relevant Exchange Rate Pass-Through to U.S. Import Prices" which is joint work with Etienne Gagnon and Ben Mandel. November 18, 2010.
Special seminar in honor of Prof. Herman Stekler. November 4, 2010.
“Measuring Aggregate Uncertainty in a Panel of Forecasts and a New Test for Forecast Heterogeneity.” Xuguang Sheng (American University). October 28, 2010.
“Predicting US Recessions: A New Forecast Combination Based Approach.” Chikako Baba and Turgut Kisinbay (IMF). October 21, 2010.
“Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts” (Special Day joint with Macro-International Seminar). Olivier Coibion (The College of William and Mary). October 20, 2010.
“How Useful are Estimated DSGE Model Forecasts for Central Bankers?” Rochelle Edge (Federal Reserve Board). October 14, 2010.
“Using Labor Force Flows to Forecast the Labor Market.” Chris Nekarda and Regis Barnichon (Federal Reserve Board). September 30, 2010.
“Disagreement Among Forecasters in G7 Countries” (PDF). Ulrich Fritsche (University of Hamburg). September 27, 2010.
“When Is Sticky Information More Information? Tracking Economic Activity Using Diffusion Indices." Pierre-Daniel Sarte (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond). September 9, 2010.
"The IMF's WEO Forecasting Process." Daniel Leigh (International Monetary Fund). September 2, 2010.
“Empirical Model Selection: Friedman and Schwartz Revisited” (PDF). Neil R. Ericsson (Federal Reserve Board and The George Washington University). May 20, 2010.
“Do Ifo WES Surveys Provide Useful Forecasts?” Mark Hutson (The George Washington University). May 13, 2010.
“Thailand's Energy Security: Strategic Petroleum Reserve." Poonpat Leesombatpiboon (The George Washington University). May 13, 2010.
“The Role of Inventories and Speculative Trading in the Global Market for Crude Oil” (PDF). Lutz Kilian (University of Michigan). April 21, 2010.
“What the Market Watched: Bloomberg News Stories and Bank Returns as the Financial Crisis Unfolded.” Robin Lumsdaine (American University). April 22, 2010.
"Continuous-Time Signal Extraction: Filter Design for Economic Time Series" (PDF). Thomas Trimbur (Federal Reserve Board). April 29, 2010.
"Why Be Safe? Public and Private Enforcement in the Air Transportation Industry." Nicole Funari (Michigan State University). April 15, 2010.
8th OxMetrics User Conference. Local organizers: Neil R. Ericsson and Frederick L. Joutz. March 18–19, 2010.
"Perspectives on Macroeconomic Forecast Evaluation" (PDF). Herman Stekler (The George Washington University). March 4, 2010.
"Forecast Error and Uncertainty: Energy Price Forecasts and Confidence Intervals." Tancred Lidderdale (Energy Information Administration). Presentation: Forecast Error and Uncertainty: Energy Price Forecasts and Confidence Intervals (PPT). February 18, 2010.
"Do Higher Wind Power Penetration Levels Pose a Challenge to Electric Power Security? : Evidence from the Forecasting Wind Generation in the ERCOT Power Grid in Texas" (PDF). Kevin Forbes (The Catholic University of America). January 21, 2010.
"Forecasting Turning Points: Consensus and Disagreement" (PDF). Prakash Loungani (International Monetary Fund), work with Natalia Tamirisa and Herman Stekler. Paper: How Well Are Recessions and Recoveries Forecast? (PDF). November 17, 2009.
"Unplanned Inventories and the Decline in GDP Volatility." James Morley (Washington University in St. Louis). November 3, 2009.
"Real-time VAR Forecasting with a Judgmental Democratic Prior." Jonathan Wright (Johns Hopkins University). October 29, 2009.
"How Strong a Recovery for the World in 2010." John Walker (Chairman, Oxford Economics). October 27, 2009.
"Forecast evaluation of small nested model sets" (PDF). Kirstin Hubrich (European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve). Joint with Ken West. October, 13, 2009.
17th Federal Forecasters Conference. September 24, 2009.
"Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation" (PDF). Chris Crowe (International Monetary Fund). September 22, 2009.
SGE Annual Conference. September 21, 2009
Introducing the Euro-STING: Short-Term Indicator of Euro Area Growth" (PDF). Gabriel Perez-Quiros (Bank of Spain). Joint with the George Washington University Macro-International Seminar. September 16, 2009.
"Forecasting and Empirical Model Selection" (PDF). Neil R. Ericsson (Federal Reserve Board). September 8, 2009.
- Relevant Papers: Comment on “Economic Forecasting in a Changing World" (PDF); Constructive Data Mining: Modeling Australian Inflation (PDF).
"Measuring U.S. International Relative Prices: A WARP View of the World" (PDF). Jaime Marquez (Division of International Finance, Federal Reserve Board). May 12, 2009.
"Measuring Forecast Uncertainty by Disagreement: The Missing Link." Kajal Lahiri. April 14, 2009.
“Rethinking our Approach to Time Series Analysis." Ralph Snyder (Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, Monash University, Australia). Handout (PDF). March 13, 2009.
"Coupled Economies, Decoupled Forecasters?" Prakash Loungani (International Monetary Fund). February 21, 2009.
"Integrating Judgmental and Quantitative Forecasts." Stephen MacDonald, Senior Economist, Economic Research Service, USDA. January 17, 2009.
"Has the Fed’s Forecasting Advantage Eroded?" Julie Smith (Lafayette College). Co-authored with Ed Gamber. November 8, 2007.
"Jointly Evaluating the Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Forecasts of Real GDP Growth and Inflation." Tara Sinclair, Department of Economics (George Washington University). Co-authored with Herman Stekler and Elizabeth Reid. October 18, 2007.
“A Framework for Decomposing Shocks and Measuring Volatilities Derived from Multi-Dimensional Panel Data of Survey Forecasts" (PDF). Antony Davies. August 7, 2007.
"Cellulosic Ethanol: Effects on the Future U.S. Economy of Successful Commercialization" (PDF). Stefan Osborne. June 19, 2007.
"A Survey of Results from Sports Forecasts" (PDF). Herman Stekler (Department of Economics, George Washington University). April 17, 2007.
“Forecasting Interments and Gravesites in National Cemeteries, the New Model." Kathleen Sorensen. March 20, 2007.
"Evaluating BLS Labor Force, Employment and Occupation Projections for 2000" (PDF). Herman Stekler, Department of Economics, George Washington University. February 20, 2007.
"Directional Forecasts of GDP and Inflation: A Joint Evaluation with an Application to Federal Reserve Predictions" (PDF). Tara M. Sinclair (Department of Economics, George Washington University). Work completed jointly with H. O. Stekler and Linsay Kitzinger. Presentation slides. January 9, 2007.