Upcoming Presentations and Events

October 18, 2018: Keith Ord (Georgetown and Research Program on Forecasting) will present: A Retrospective Analysis of the Spatial and Temporal Patterns of the West African Ebola Epidemic, 2014-2015 (joint with Arthur Getis, San Diego State University)

Abstract. The goal is to predict the final extent of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa, 2014-2015, well before its end. Our models are based on the nature of the reported data, and the social, medical, and technological conditions that existed in real time during the course of theepidemic. The spatial and temporal nature of Ebola transmission is considered. A modified, classical compartmental model is used to develop variations of Gompertz and logistic-type predictive models. A map analysis strongly hints at the existence of an initial rural component of the transmission of the disease followed by an urban component.  cumulative and weekly data for the three countries illustrate how the disease intensified and spread over the 90 weeks of the epidemic. A spatial autocorrelation study shows the clustering locational changes of the disease over time. A cross-correlation study gives credence to both a rural and an urban transmission pattern. Our early estimates of the toll of the disease, crude as they are, stand in marked contrast to some of the official estimates at the time, which greatly inflated the number of new cases.


November 15, 2018: Laura Liu (Federal Reserve) TBD


Save the Date!  December 12-13, 2018: 19th IWH-CIREQ-GW Macroeconometric Workshop: Uncertainty, Expectations and Macroeconomic Modelling will be held in Halle (Saale) Germany.  The submission deadline is September 25th. 


If you have any suggestions for speakers to invite or for other events, please email [email protected].


Brown Bag Seminar Series on Forecasting

Except for special cases, our seminars will be held on Thursdays from 12:30pm to 2:00pm in the Kendrick Conference Room

Monroe Hall Room 321
2115 G Street NW
Washington, DC 20052

Please watch this site for upcoming events and email [email protected] if you are interested in participating in this seminar.

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