FFC/2024: The 25th Federal Forecasters Conference
Thu, 23 May, 2024
9:00am - 4:30pm
Event Details
- Date: Thursday, May 23, 2024
- Location: U.S. Department of the Treasury, 1500 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC
- Final program is available here.
- Recording of morning sessions is now available here: https://www2.gwu.edu/~forcpgm/FFC2024.mp4
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See below for slides from each morning panelist.
Conference Theme: Forecasting Under Rapid Change with Extreme Events
Forecasters increasingly produce forecasts in rapidly changing environments with extreme and uncertain events. Examples of recent events include global pandemics, international conflicts, shifting trade relations, migrations, financial and economic crises, and an evolving climate with weather disasters. Whether these events impact individuals or societies, each of these events presents unique challenges to forecasters and can induce major policy responses that require new methods and alternative data sources. They can also evolve rapidly in unanticipated ways that require regular monitoring. The 2024 Federal Forecasters Conference will consider how different forecasters have developed approaches to monitor and forecast rapidly changing extreme events. What methods and data sources are useful for forecasting in a rapidly changing environment? How do you convey uncertainty and risks to policymakers so that they can quickly and appropriately make informed decisions?
Plenary Speakers
Erika McEntarfer - slides
Commissioner of Labor Statistics, BLS
Formerly head of research for Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics at Census Bureau
David Wilcox - slides
Bloomberg Economics and the Peterson Institute for International Economics
Former director of Research and Statistics, Federal Reserve Board
Carolyn (Lyn) Stoesen - slides
Director, Office of Enrollment and Forecasting, Veterans Health Administration, U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs
Sarah Kapnick - slides
Chief Scientist at NOAA
Previously senior climate scientist at J.P. Morgan
Sponsoring Agencies
Bureau of Economic Analysis • Bureau of Labor Statistics • Congressional Budget Office • Department of Veterans Affairs • Economic Research Service, USDA • Federal Aviation Administration • Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Federal Reserve Board • Internal Revenue Service • Office of Economic Policy, U.S. Department of the Treasury • U.S. Census Bureau • U.S. Department of Labor • U.S. Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Analysis • U.S. Geological Survey
Partnering Organizations
H.O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, The George Washington University
Society of Government Economists